GM Investors, 😊
Welcome back to our weekly market dive!
As the S&P 500 treads a delicate line between support and resistance, individual stocks like Tesla and Netflix face crucial retest moments.
Intel charts its course within a macro range, while Amazon and Meta showcase resilience post-volatile retests.
Let’s get right into this one.
SP500 is holding the black level as support but rejecting from the last major resistance before new All Time Highs (red).
Currently ranging though if resistance continues, SP500 could dip into the Range Low again next week.
Tesla — TSLA
In October, we spoke about TSLA’s Macro Downtrend and how price was going to likely revisit it in an attempt to potentially showcase a weakening support at $206:
If TSLA manages to hold here as support (and maybe even downside wick into the dashed orange level but manage to secure a Monthly Close above blue), at the very best TSLA could bounce back to the Macro Downtrend for what would be a lesser rally once again, for what would be a +21% move or so:
TSLA then rallied over +25%, in line with this prediction going into the end of 2023:
Now, TSLA is on the cusp of a potential breakout here.
The Monthly Candle is pressing beyond this Macro Downtrend.
In the past, TSLA printed upside wicks beyond this point which preceded rejection.
Which is why it is crucial for TSLA to Monthly Close above the Macro Downtrend as that would shift the psychology at this trendline and along with that shift the trend entirely.
And then we learned of the bearish Monthly Close which essentially set things up for downside:
And we’ve seen that downside materialize since:
TSLA is now approaching the orange level for a retest.
Generally, last week we spoke about a few key things:
- The orange and blue levels are key supports in this downtrend
- It’s possible TSLA could develop a Higher Low at some point
With this in mind, here’s the next chart:
Multiple times in the past, whenever TSLA had reached the orange level for a support retest, TSLA would produce strong downside volatility to the point where price would even tag the blue level as well (yellow circles illustrate this).
Which is why during the retest of the orange level, there’s scope for this downside volatility, however it may not be enough to tag the blue level via a wick as a Higher Low may stop that from happening.
Generally, the TSLA will look to stabilise between the orange and blue levels.
And then we’ll need to ask ourselves a relatively old question that we posted before the +25% rally took place…
Is $206 weakening as a macro support?
Let’s not jump to conclusions just yet but wait for the reaction between these two key levels to assess the strength of it.
Intel Corporation — INTC
INTC is inside the $44.11-$64.63 macro range.
In fact, it is only just beginning its journey in the lower half of this range ($44.11-$53.85).
The only update for INTC here is that there is an intent to retest the Range Low as support again.
Generally, INTC is looking comfortably in re-affirming the Range Low to solidify itself within the lower half of this macro range and so far, so good.
Netflix — NFLX
Here is early December’s analysis on NFLX:
Monthly Close occurred below the $476 level and so it will continue to act as resistance.
Price has rejected from here and now following the green path.
Blue will soon be retested as new support which is no surprise given how blue acted as a strong resistance a few months ago.
Even if price is dropping this month, this does not take away from the fact that we’ve seen a seismic shift in market psychology relative to this $441 blue level.
Before — people would sell here, heavily.
Now, it looks like people are willing to buy here.
Tremendous shift in psychology, all inside a few months.
Here is late December’s analysis:
NFLX has bounced almost +10% from the blue $441 support and now positioning itself for a bullish Monthly Close above the black $476 resistance.
The last time NFLX Monthly Closed above this black $476 level was in 2020 and that Monthly Closed enabled a move to the Range High resistance of $567 (blue) above.
Generally, NFLX is in the process of reclaiming the black level as a new Range Low support in an effort to confirm a new macro range as a new home ($476-$567; black-blue).
And lastly — here is today’s update:
NFLX is still showcasing signs of stability at the black $476 level and as a result is more positioned for a move via the orange path, rather than the green path.
The question is — how much does NFLX need to dip before resuming its uptrend?
Generally, the blue $441 level is a strong resistance which could legitimately act as new support if it is tested.
One theory for a deeper pullback into the blue level would be the activation of its Bearish Divergence (light blue).
Of course, for this Bear Div to validate, the RSI would need to reject from its Lower High which it is now testing.
In fact, the RSI is coiling inside a pennant-like micro formation:
The RSI’s next decision will dictate the path NFLX takes.
But if we really zoom out, we’re trying to understand whether NFLX will dip -7% or not.
Nvidia — NVDA
Here is an analysis on NVDA from early December 2023:
NVDA is still hovering within the red Channel at highs.
Technically this is just consolidation.
It’s difficult to say which way the wind will blow next when it comes to consolidation, which is just noise before the next trend.
And so it’s better to focus on the key levels instead.
The base of the structure is one and the last major resistance before new All Time Highs is the other.
Here is a today’s update:
NVDA followed the upper path, successfully retested old All Time Highs at $496 (black) before spring boarding strongly into the upper resistance of the predominant market structure price has been occupying for several months.
The upper structure resistance is where NVDA is rejecting from right now.
Turning it into support would enable further Price Discovery of course but it might be a difficult resistance to break in the short-term, given how it is inclining as well.
In terms of action areas, the more obvious one is the old All Time Highs (black $496) for another retest should price pullback from here.
Microsoft — MSFT
Over the past few weeks, my analysis has focused more on disputing any weakness for MSFT, even though there were mounting signs.
To good effect, as MSFT has broken out from its Re-Accumulation range:
And right now, the most logical textbook technical step would be for MSFT to dip for a retest to fully confirm the breakout.
It could be a picture-perfect retest but I’d also be open to a volatile one as the Volume Profile indicator is emphasizing the general Re-Accumulation Range as a source of support now:
So any dip into these two VPVR bars would be sufficient for MSFT to confirm its breakout and enter trend continuation:
Essentially, in sum — the range itself is the retesting zone, though of course the top of the range is the textbook target for the retest.
Amazon — AMZN
Last week’s analysis focused exclusively on the retest attempt and it’s possible volatile nature to the downside:
AMZN Monthly Closed above the black $149 level which means that this level has been broken as resistance and this month price will try to reclaim this level as new support.
Right now, this is possibly a volatile retest, similar to what we saw with INTC a few weeks back.
As long as AMZN is able to reclaim the Range Low before the end of January, this may very well be a volatile retest, especially since AMZN produced such a volatile retest at these levels in mid-2020 and again in early-2021.
Here’s today’s update:
AMZN indeed performed a volatile retest and has since rallied +6% to the upside (+2% from the actual Range Low level of $149).
AMZN is following history in terms of producing downside wicks below the Range Low of $149 and continued solidification of support here as well as stability will precede further upside via the black path to the Range High resistance above.
Meta — META
Here is last week’s analysis which focused on META’s retest:
Monthly Close occurred above the blue level which now means that META will attempt to turn this into a new Range Low support.
META is following the green path right now and there are initial signs of a successful retest occurring here.
Continued stability here and META will be able to rally via the green path to the Range High resistance at $379 which happens to be the final major resistance before new All Time Highs and Price Discovery.
And here’s today’s update:
META successfully retested the Range Low as support and has rebounded +9% to the upside.
Following the green path now.
My thought at this time however is — could META form a Lower High relative to the mid-2021 highs?
That would present an interesting opportunity for META to dip right back into the blue $337 level for a support retest.
If that isn’t the case however, META should be able to follow its green path to completion over time.
Alphabet — GOOGL
Last week we discussed GOOGL’s retest as well:
And GOOGL has followed its black path to completion already, for a +4% move:
At this stage, GOOGL is mid-way in the range and so there’s a chance price could try to repeat the black path once again.
In the event that it doesn’t and instead lifts beyond the red resistance area, a retest of that region would be a key technical point of focus.
With GOOGL, we just need to watch things develop.
Thank you for reading.
Subscribe for free to Money Mastery and receive weekly tech investment strategies that’ll help you make better informed decisions in the future.